The Calgary Real Estate Market is certainly feeling the effects of higher interest rates and mortgage rules changes. Sales in the first quarter of 2018 were down 18% from the same period last year?

Is this drop due to the unseasonably high volumes we saw in late 2017, presumably in advance of the mortgage qualification rule tightening that went into effect on January 1, 2018?

Consumer confidence is up and is confidence in the labour market. Salaries haven’t returned to pre-slump levels, by any stretch, but companies are hiring, and unemployment is slowly decreasing again. Are these all not signs of recovery?

According to Todd Hirsch, Chief Economist at ATB, in migration is on the rise again too, especially from neighbouring provinces. This should all lead to stronger demand, correct?

Well it should … theoretically. So why hasn’t it?

Well I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again, Real Estate is a lagging indicator – meaning that it will respond after the majority of sectors (ie. labour, retail sales, etc.). This means that we can expect a bumpy market for the foreseeable.

The good news is that the Government of Canada appears to be putting rate hikes on the back burner, as GDP growth tracks lower. This will keep both fixed and variable rates lower for longer than forecast earlier this year.

Rates might just be the shining beacon in this Calgary Real Estate spring market!